About an hour in the past (I am typing this at 3:25 PM PST on Wednesday, October 1st), Forbes printed the next headline:
“Elon Musk Simply Grew to become The First Individual Ever Value $500 Billion”
Sadly, for my part, this headline shouldn’t be correct. If you truly run the numbers — Tesla’s latest inventory climb, SpaceX’s valuation, and Musk’s stake in his different firms — the maths does not add as much as $500 billion. Not but. Frankly, it is my perception that Forbes is front-running a headline to get a ton of pageviews and backlinks. As a result of guess what? That is precisely what’s occurring:
The Actual Math
Full disclosure: I personal shares of Tesla in a retirement account. This text shouldn’t be inventory recommendation, and no sane individual can predict what’s going to truly occur to Tesla. Take me, for instance. I bought swept up in a critical case of FOMO in late 2024 and purchased Tesla at $349 a share. I felt like a genius for a couple of weeks because the share worth climbed to $400, then $450, and really briefly $480… then as he turned probably the most hated individual in America, the inventory sank all the way in which again down as little as $220 in April 2025. Over the previous few months, the inventory has climbed proper again up. It closed at $459 a share in the present day. So I’m as soon as once more feeling like a genius.
On the finish of yesterday’s market closing, CelebrityNetWorth estimated Elon Musk’s web value at $460 billion. Bloomberg pegged it at $456 billion.
On Wednesday, Tesla’s inventory elevated 3.31%. A 3.31% acquire in Tesla’s market cap interprets to roughly a $7 billion enhance to his private fortune. Possibly extra like $10 billion, relying on what number of choices he holds and what number of shares are at the moment getting used as collateral on loans. Let’s be beneficiant and say his web value in the present day is $470 billion. As you may see, that is not $500 billion.
In late December, when Tesla very briefly hit an all-time excessive of $480, and we wrote an article titled “Elon Musk’s Net Worth Hit $485 Billion Tuesday… Hypothetically Could Become The World’s First Half-Trillionaire *Tomorrow*“… Because it turned out, the following day, Tesla dropped to $440. Then $400. Then $370. So, primarily based on the truth that Elon’s web value was $485 billion when Tesla was at $480, it appears unbelievable that in the present day, with Tesla at $459, he could be value $500 billion. Here is a extra detailed breakdown…
Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Photos
The place Forbes Finds the Further $30–40 Billion
If Tesla’s bump solely explains a $7–10 billion enhance, the place does Forbes get the additional $30–40 billion wanted to push Musk throughout the “half-trillionaire” line? The reply lies in the way you worth his non-public firms — and the way aggressive you need to be with these valuations.
Tesla
Tesla closed in the present day with a market cap of $1.53 trillion. Musk immediately owns about 12.5% of the corporate, a stake value roughly $190 billion. Musk COULD ultimately personal a further 9% of Tesla, due to his well-known 2018 compensation package deal. Sadly for him, a Delaware decide voided that package deal in January 2024, however Musk is interesting to the state supreme court docket. If reinstated, that package deal may ultimately be value over $130 billion. Elon additionally has at the very least half of his shares pledged as collateral for private loans. These two elements add an additional $75 billion to his web value.
SpaceX
SpaceX has been the crown jewel of Musk’s non-public empire for years. In August 2025, a young supply valued the corporate at round $400 billion, up from $350 billion late final 12 months. Musk owns roughly 42%, which works out to $168 billion on paper. That is an unlimited quantity, however it’s additionally one which fluctuates relying on which non-public deal you cite.
xAI Holdings
That is the place issues get actually fuzzy. In March 2025, Musk merged his AI startup xAI with X (previously Twitter), creating a brand new entity known as xAI Holdings. Forbes values the mixed firm at $113 billion, and says Musk owns a 53% stake with a paper worth of round $60 billion. Different sources are much less bullish: PitchBook pegged xAI at $75 billion earlier this 12 months. Bloomberg claims Musk owns 33% of xAI holdings and that it was valued at $105 billion by Constancy and Barron in 2025 filings. Utilizing Bloomberg’s data, Musk’s stake is value $35 billion (vs $60 billion utilized by Forbes).
If you add up all of the numbers in purple above, you get: $190 + 75 + $168 + 35 = $468 billion.
I’ll publish this text in a second. It is 4 pm PST on the dot. Bloomberg has not up to date its estimate for Elon but. They nonetheless present information “as of September 30, 2025,” aka yesterday. I’ll go for a stroll and take a bathe. I guess by the point I get again, Bloomberg may have up to date its numbers. Wish to guess the place they land? Over/below $470 billion? No matter Bloomberg updates its quantity to, you may guess it will not be $500 billion.
***Replace*** I went for a stroll and took a bathe. It is now 5:25 pm PST. I simply refreshed Bloomberg’s billionaire rankings and guess what… Elon Musk’s web value? $470 billion 🙂
