When Microsoft first went public, Invoice owned 45% of the corporate’s shares. Over the following few many years, he bought so many shares as part of a wealth diversification plan that at this time he solely owns round 1.3% of the corporate. For example Invoice maintained 30% of Microsoft. In early 2024, when Microsoft’s market cap topped $3 trillion for the primary time, Invoice Gates would have grow to be the world’s first trillionaire.
On Tuesday, December 10, 2024, Elon Musk’s web value hit $400 billion for the primary time. He’s the first human ever to have a web value of $400 billion. The very subsequent day, his web value rose to $450 billion. A number of days later, his web value briefly touched $485 billion. A number of days after that, he flirted with $500 billion earlier than dropping again right down to the mid-$400-billion vary. Till at this time.
Earlier at this time, Elon’s web value surpassed $600 billion. Truly, it soared all the way in which to $640 billion.
The expansion of Elon’s fortune is completely gorgeous. Simply 5 years in the past, you possibly can have purchased all of Tesla for round $50 billion. And at this time, Tesla is not even Elon’s solely trillion-dollar firm. In order that begs a literal trillion-dollar query:
What would it not take for Elon Musk to grow to be a trillionaire?
Elon Musk’s web value is at present $640 billion. Elon’s fortune is constructed on a number of property:
- Tesla
- SpaceX
- xAI
- Varied different ventures
Let’s begin with Tesla.
Tesla
As I kind this text, Tesla’s market cap is a bit over $1.5 trillion. On account of quite a lot of elements, together with choices and debt collateral, Elon’s Tesla stake is value within the vary of $250 billion.
SpaceX
Previous to at this time, Elon owned 43% of SpaceX, and the corporate’s newest funding spherical valued the corporate at $400 billion. Subsequently, previous to at this time, Elon’s stake was value $160 billion. Earlier at this time, it was revealed that SpaceX insiders bought shares within the firm at an $800 billion valuation. Subsequently, Elon’s 43% stake is now value $344 billion on paper.
xAI
Slon owns 33% of xAI holdings, and the corporate was most just lately valued at $100 billion. Subsequently, his stake is value round $35 billion.
Different Ventures
Elon owns stakes in numerous different ventures, notably Neuralink and The Boring Firm. These add one other roughly $10 billion.
$250+ $344 + 35 + 10 = $639 billion
(Picture by Maja Hitij/Getty Photographs)
What Would It Take To Hit $1 Trillion?
We ran the numbers. I am going to spare you the small print. Listed below are the circumstances that signify the most certainly path for Elon Musk to grow to be a trillionaire:
#1: Tesla’s market cap grows to $3 trillion – double at this time’s $1.5 trillion market cap. At that degree, Elon’s stake can be value $500 billion.
#2: SpaceX’s worth (both personal or as a public firm) reaches $1.5 trillion – up from at this time’s $800 billion valuation. Assuming he maintains a 35% stake at that degree, after some dilution, his shares can be value $525 billion.
$500 + $525 = $1.025 trillion… with out even counting every other property.
For example all his different property and debt ranges keep precisely the place they’re proper now. If Tesla and SpaceX develop to these market caps, these two investments mixed can be value $975 billion. Rounding out for some debt and different property, notably xAI, and I feel it is protected to say Elon can be a trillionaire at these ranges.
However There’s An $8.5 Trillion Catch!
The maths we simply ran assumes Elon’s Tesla fairness stake doesn’t enhance. However that is not what’s going to occur if the corporate’s market cap retains rising.
In September of this 12 months, Tesla unveiled a brand new bold compensation plan for Elon that might finally award him an addtional 12% stake in Tesla – as much as 35 million shares – based mostly on a mix of market cap and efficiency milestones. The best degree market cap within the plan is $8.5 trillion, however he may also unlock further shares alongside the way in which at lower-level milestones, beginning at $2 trillion market cap. On the time this plan was introduced, Tesla’s market cap was $1.1 trillion. Here is a chart summarizing the compensation plan and every milestone:
As you’ll be able to see within the chart above, the 2025 CEO Efficiency Award is cut up into 12 tranches. Every time a market-cap milestone is matched with an operational milestone, Elon unlocks roughly ~1% of Tesla (≈ one tranche). Beginning baseline used right here: ~21% possession. Here is one other visualization:
| Market-cap milestone
(paired with operational milestone) |
Tranche unlocked | Approx. possession after unlock |
|---|---|---|
| $2T + 20M automobiles delivered | 1st tranche (~1%) | ~22% |
| $2.5T + 10M energetic FSD subscriptions | 2nd tranche (~1%) | ~23% |
| $3T + 1M robots delivered | third tranche (~1%) | ~24% |
| $3.5T + 1M robotaxis in business operation | 4th tranche (~1%) | ~25% |
| $4T + $50B adjusted EBITDA | fifth tranche (~1%) | ~26% |
| $4.5T + $80B adjusted EBITDA | sixth tranche (~1%) | ~27% |
| $5T + $130B adjusted EBITDA | seventh tranche (~1%) | ~28% |
| $5.5T + $210B adjusted EBITDA | eighth tranche (~1%) | ~29% |
| $6T + $300B adjusted EBITDA | ninth tranche (~1%) | ~30% |
| $6.5T + $400B adjusted EBITDA | tenth tranche (~1%) | ~31% |
| $7.5T + (paired management/plan necessities) | eleventh tranche (~1%) | ~32% |
| $8.5T + (paired management/plan necessities) | twelfth tranche (~1%) | ~33% |
Within the math we simply ran to find out when Elon would grow to be a trillionaire, we used a set stake in Tesla, however that is not really what would occur. If Tesla will get to a market cap of $2 trillion, Elon will get one other 1% of the corporate. At that time, his possession stake can be value round $420 billion. If the corporate continues its ascent to a market cap of $3 trillion, he would unlock the third tranche, bringing his general Tesla stake to round $650 billion.
For example he simply will get Tesla to $2 trillion, which isn’t that removed from at this time’s $1.5 trillion. At that degree, his Tesla stake can be value $420 billion. If SpaceX reaches a $1.5 trillion valuation, that might add $525 billion, bringing his web value to $925 billion. If his stakes in xAI and his different ventures stay flat, that might add one other $45 billion, bringing Elon’s web value to proper round $990 billion. So all he would want to do is juice one other $10 billion in worth from his xAI and different ventures, and trillionaire standing can be unlocked with Tesla *solely* needing a market cap of $2 trillion.
