For me, the early a part of any Oscars season is at all times probably the most enjoyable. Earlier than there’s any sense of the taking part in subject, a big selection of flicks are thrown into a giant, messy swirl of hype and hypothesis, all hoping to remain within the dialog lengthy sufficient to seem like contenders.
It is this time of 12 months, when bets are continually positioned, deserted, and doubled-down, that we get probably the most surprises. Possibly a predicted heavyweight will get knocked out at a pageant, and a studio should determine whether or not to forge forward or pivot. Possibly a fantastic movie with out distribution will get picked up and throws off everybody’s class math. Possibly, if we’re fortunate, a query mark comes roaring out the gate and profoundly reshapes the race.
That is already occurred as soon as this 12 months, when One Battle After Another flexed on the festivals by opening proper after them to the most effective evaluations of Paul Thomas Anderson’s profession. Now, after Marty Supreme‘s shock premiere on the New York Movie Pageant, it seems prefer it’s occurred once more.
You would possibly count on A24, which simply noticed its most costly film ever rock the home with greater than two months to go till its Christmas Day launch, to be celebrating. They usually in all probability are. However they’re additionally dealing with a difficult predicament that may make that victory slightly bittersweet.
A24’s Safdie Brothers Competitors Simply Took A Main Flip
Earlier than the 2026 Best Picture race actually received began, one of many clearest narratives to observe for was the Safdie Derby. Josh and Benny Safdie, brother filmmakers who had beforehand made their films collectively, have been each unveiling their first solo-projects since going their separate methods, competing in the identical awards season. (Somebody may make a reasonably good film out of that logline!)
In a single nook, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine, an MMA biopic with Dwayne Johnson stepping out of his blockbuster consolation zone. Within the different, Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, a ping pong interval piece starring Timothée Chalamet, whose final function scored him a Greatest Actor nomination.
Each are A24 movies; at reported $50 million and $70 million budgets, each are among the many studio’s greatest bets so far. Clearly, each have been coming into awards season as priorities.
The Smashing Machine emerged rapidly as a significant participant. It premiered on the Venice Movie Pageant to a 15-minute standing ovation that had Johnson tearing up, inspiring callbacks to The Whale ovation that kicked off Brendan Fraser’s Greatest Actor journey. On prime of incomes reward for The Rock’s efficiency, Safdie walked away with the Silver Lion for Greatest Director.
That begin wasn’t as sizzling because it seemed on paper, nonetheless. The evaluations have been optimistic, however with a 64 on Metacritic, they have been hardly ecstatic, and the Venice prizes normally prompted loads of head-scratching this 12 months. Final weekend, issues took a flip. The Smashing Machine opened to only $5.9 million home, after monitoring at $20 million simply three weeks earlier.
Field workplace success is not a prerequisite for Oscars rivalry. However in a sport that depends on momentum and compelling narratives, journalists asking Dwayne Johnson about his lowest-ever field workplace opening as an alternative of his appearing course of cannot actually be a very good factor. Monetary battle is not a successful story, and if that story proves sticky, it may tank the movie’s marketing campaign.
On Saturday, after the disappointing receipts made headlines, the information broke that the New York Movie Pageant was including a shock screening on Monday evening. Rumors flew that the thriller film was Marty Supreme, and, lo and behold, it was. I wakened this morning to rapturous reactions, from greater than the usual social media hype machine.
I do not imply to suggest that A24 organized this sudden premiere as a result of of The Smashing Machine‘s efficiency – for all I do know, this screening was within the works for weeks. However the timing is pure poetry. Whether or not deliberately or not, the studio reversed its awards season development by leveraging one Safdie movie towards one other.
A24 Might Be Going through A Powerful Choice (That They Simply Made More durable)
Now comes the tough half. Oscar campaigns require loads of cash and sources, such that even the most important studios can solely put their full weight behind a pair films. Yearly, as some movies rise and others fall, once-prominent Greatest Image contenders see their home windows of alternative slender.
A24’s slates have been mentioned on this manner prior to now. In 2023, with Previous Lives and The Zone of Curiosity main the best way, Priscilla and The Iron Claw have been blanked on the Oscars. Final 12 months, after The Brutalist was acquired out of the festivals, Sing Sing slowed down considerably, and each Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig missed Greatest Actress and Actor for Babygirl and Queer, respectively.
Priscilla and Babygirl each kicked off their campaigns with Venice prizes, solely to fall by the wayside. Maybe The Smashing Machine is destined to take an analogous trajectory.
However these movies weren’t made by siblings of the administrators that A24 ended up backing via to the tip.
In line with Deadline, The Smashing Machine is heading towards a lack of $15-20 million. Whether or not to pour extra money right into a multi-category push or reduce to give attention to Johnson shall be, on the finish of the day, a enterprise choice. However there are optics at play right here that make this explicit state of affairs probably extra charged.
Earlier than both movie was screened, social media sought to pit the Safdies towards one another, on the lookout for one to indicate themselves because the superior a part of their previous partnership. The timing of Marty Supreme‘s premiere has additional invited such comparisons. It might have been envisioned as a second of twin triumph, however would which were well worth the danger of fanning these flames?
A24 has a status for being filmmaker-friendly, and their collaborators hold coming again. However as they search to make the climb from indie darling to mini-major, the cash will discuss an increasing number of loudly, and people relationships which have powered their success could also be on the road. How they navigate this awards season, which they’ve concurrently supercharged and made extra awkward for themselves, could possibly be a glimpse into the place this second of transition will lead them.
